Rarely, says one government official, have I ever seen so much of discipline in Kashmir that they follow the separatist calendar up to the decimal level.“It remains deserted the whole day and then all of a sudden it bounces back to normalcy in a few moments, so quickly that it shocks,” the official said. “Then there are traffic jams, business, noise and life.”
It has been 100 days already. There has not been a death by hunger. No education, no production and life literally paralyzed as businesses are incurring massive losses. There are murmurs and tensions but not an open revolt against separatists, as many were anticipating and which was quite natural had it not been Kashmir.
“It is not an ordinary situation. It is an open civil disobedience movement,” admitted a senior leader in the unionist camp. “People follow the programme of our ideological opponents in letter and spirit.”
One minister in Ms Mehbooba Mufti led BJP-PDP government said their rivals (read NC) have been unsupportive. “They have given up the opposition space and taken back seat unlike us in 2010,” the minister, talking informally, said. “They are not doing any good (to the unionist camp) by being conservative in exposing us.” The minister’s tension is that the unionist camp is losing its space to its collective ideological rival.
The crisis was perhaps captured by M K Narayanan, the National Security Adviser of Dr Manmohan Singh, perfectly. Insisting that no meaningful attempt was made to understand “what is happening beneath the surface” till the base metal was converted into gold, a reference to the parallels being drawn between Burhan Wani and Che Gavera. Perhaps the only security expert from mainland India who has honestly admitted that the ongoing movement is homegrown and lacks any connectivity with Lashkar or Jaish, Narayanan is clear in asserting that both Srinagar and Delhi lack “intellectual or political acumen” to address it.
Within days after the state government understood the scope of the crisis, it found itself in unison with Delhi in blaming Pakistan. In the second stage, it surrendered almost every policy decisionto the central government, obviously through the security route. A debate was launched over tear smoke versus pellet guns versus PAVA that eventually prevented any change.
“If the government would have intervened to change the direction of the shotgun, we might not have as many pellet-blinds as we have today,” Ali A, a pharmacy professional said. “If I lack the government that cannot change the direction of the gun, why do I need that?”
Situation that is emerging on the scene is perhaps more than the “mini war” that PDP leader Muzaffar Hussain Beig talked about before he fell silent. Setting a fire to paddy stocks, crushing apple harvest, litting homes up, breaking household items in raids, mixing rice with salt and spices and imposing a new order at places where writ of the government matters, like the Jawahar Tunnel and the Sopore Fruit Mandi (where troops were deployed to ensure the market works from 9 am and not 5 am as it is the routine), the government declared a literal war on the people it claims it represents. This is in addition to nearly 12000 arrests, mostly informal. It has been 14 weeks that there were no Friday prayers in Jamia Masjid.
Unrest and halt in economic activity for small societies make them abnormally weak. The governments in such spaces emerge more powerful, eventually. Governments which mean business improve its image in that phase. But that is unlikely to happen here.
Seemingly, the government is expected to react differently. With no work for more than 100 days, the economic slowdown is going to hit the banks across businesses, in retail, manufacturing and in services. Insider accounts suggest that advances in the range of Rs 6000 – Rs 8000 crore could become instantly stressed if the government does not take it up with the banking regulator, the RBI, so that all these accounts could be restructured in anticipation. Restructuring delays repayments and does not necessarily envisage any concession other than that.
In case it does not happen, the banks – mostly the state owned J&K Bank, could face the music. It has already landed in an unprecedented situation for being truthful on issues that were kept under the wraps. The government is not doing anything because “it cannot incentivize unrest”. So the government will encourage default to enforce its writ!
BJP and PDP are keen to strengthen the relationship they have. Both are unwilling to do any intervention in Kashmir. Centre does not want to be seen as “weak” party in Kashmir context because it could impact its electoral gains in UP, Gujarat and Punjab. From pellet guns to ‘surgical strikes’, it has actually converted most of Kashmir happenings into its political capital.
Its Kashmir ally was keen to see certain concessions coming through, initially. Seven fortnights later, it is not against Delhi’s idea that Kashmir should survive with a sense of defeat and there should not be any concession or a CBM that would give any “victory” feeling in Kashmir. PDP foresees a ‘slew of concessions’ after peace returns so that everything from release of detainees to CBMs; it gets some capital for its recovery at ground zero.
Barring diplomatic squabbling between India and Pakistan that has internationalized Kashmir, the resultant scenario only shows the tunnel is apparently prolonging. Apple apart, almost every other thing has gone into red. All the manufacturing facilities are locked. Most of the private sector is sick as nearly half a million workers managing the private sector are unpaid, at least for two months now. Education is apparently no priority. Now the government is migrating for six months to Jammu leaving Kashmir to a bunch of babus and the security grid.
With cold waves gripping the valley, the separatists may feel the heat for prolonging the monotonous calendar that will now have only two parties – the people and the separatists as government will operate from Jammu. Even the wealthy would move to warmer environs. With summer lost to the 100 days of hartals and restrictions, winter may pose uncomfortable questions that can heat up Kashmir, again.
